The Balkan Powder Keg. What Smoulders Beneath the Ashes
Are the Balkans still Europe’s powder keg? What tensions continue to affect the region, and what role can the major powers and the European Union play in shaping its future? These were the central questions explored during the lecture ‘The Balkan Powder Keg: What Is Smouldering Beneath the Ashes?’, delivered on Tuesday 20 October by journalist and author Pierluigi Sabatti at Trieste’s Antico Caffè San Marco. The event, which attracted a large audience, marked the beginning of the new season of lectures held on the third Tuesday of each month and organised by the Manlio Cecovini Study Society.
‘The spotlight of the media has shifted somewhat away from the Balkans,’ Sabatti observed at the beginning of his talk, noting that international attention is now largely focused on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Yet, he stressed, the tensions that have historically characterised the Balkan Peninsula have not disappeared. From the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 to the assassination in Sarajevo, which helped trigger the First World War, the region has repeatedly been at the centre of crises capable of drawing in the entire continent. Although the situation has changed profoundly, historical rivalries, questions of identity, economic difficulties and international interests remain closely intertwined.
The first and most extensive part of the lecture focused on Serbia, which Sabatti described as currently the most unstable country on the peninsula. His analysis centred on the student protests that began following the collapse of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which claimed sixteen lives, and gradually developed into a wider movement challenging corruption, patronage and the exercise of political power. Ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 25 October, Sabatti examined the contest between Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party and the student-backed electoral list, drawing on analyses by the Osservatorio Balcani-Caucaso Transeuropa and political analyst Mirko Dautović.
According to Sabatti’s interpretation, the vote could usher in a period of change, but might also result in political deadlock. Particular attention was paid to safeguards for electoral integrity, difficulties in scrutinising electoral registers and the need for sufficient independent and international observers. Sabatti also highlighted the influence of Serbian nationalism and unresolved historical issues, which continue to shape political debate and relations with neighbouring countries.
Serbia also illustrates the complexity of the international balance of power in the Balkans. Caught between its European aspirations and its ties with Moscow, Belgrade has developed relationships over the years with a wide range of international partners, from the United States and China to France, Germany and Turkey. Sabatti referred, among other examples, to military agreements with Paris, Chinese investment in mineral extraction and controversies surrounding lithium mining projects. In his view, this foreign policy has enabled Vučić to consolidate his international position, although it now faces an increasingly uncertain domestic political landscape.
The lecture continued with an overview of the political and economic situations in the other countries of the region, highlighting their differing circumstances but also a number of recurring challenges: corruption, difficulties in establishing stable institutions, nationalist tensions and often complicated relationships with the process of European integration.
Montenegro, one of the countries furthest along the path towards EU membership, was presented as an economy supported by tourism and investment, but characterised by a delicate political balance and the coexistence of pro-European and pro-Serbian forces within the governing majority. In Bulgaria, Sabatti focused on political instability in recent years, anti-corruption protests and the challenges facing the country’s institutions, particularly against the backdrop of tensions in the Black Sea. Greece, by contrast, was presented as an example of economic recovery following the debt crisis, despite continuing significant social, employment and housing problems.
Attention was also given to Romania, which, according to the picture outlined by the speaker, is experiencing difficulties in forming a government and a rise in nationalist forces, and to North Macedonia, where progress towards European integration continues to be hindered by the identity-related and constitutional dispute with Bulgaria.
The situation in Kosovo remains particularly complex, marked by difficult relations with Serbia, tensions in Serb-majority municipalities and a process of closer integration with the European Union that is also hampered by five Member States’ refusal to recognise its independence. Sabatti noted that dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, supported by the European institutions, continues to make only limited progress.
In Albania, the discussion focused on student mobilisation and protests against Edi Rama’s government, driven by conditions within the university system, the cost of education and allegations of corruption. The speaker highlighted the contrast between these domestic tensions and the progress the country has made towards EU membership.
The regional overview concluded with Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the complex institutional structure established after the war continues to be affected by divisions between the Bosniak, Serb and Croat communities. Mutual vetoes, separatist pressures within Republika Srpska (the Serb Republic of Bosnia), economic difficulties and the emigration of younger generations all represent, according to Sabatti, obstacles to the country’s stability and development.
What role, then, can Europe play? In the concluding part of his lecture, Sabatti acknowledged the European Union’s efforts to support peace, reform and regional integration, while also highlighting their limitations. In his view, internal divisions, the influence of sovereigntist political forces and the requirement for unanimity in certain decisions continue to undermine Europe’s ability to act swiftly. This weakness is particularly significant in a region where the United States, Russia and China pursue different economic and strategic interests.
Returning to the question posed in the title of the lecture — whether the Balkan powder keg could erupt once again — Sabatti pointed to the risks arising from unresolved crises, beginning with Serbia. Such an outcome is not inevitable, but remains a possibility that makes it essential to continue following developments in the region closely, without assuming that the conflicts of the past have been definitively overcome.
The lecture was followed by a lively discussion with the audience, whose questions and first-hand accounts added further perspectives. Topics included political differences between urban and rural areas in Serbia, relations between Belgrade and Zagreb, protests in Albania, relations between Italy and Serbia, and the role of religious affiliations in Balkan political life.
Turning specifically to Croatia, Sabatti recalled how historical rivalries with Serbia continue to weigh on relations between the two countries, observing that references to the past can also be used to divert attention from domestic difficulties. On the religious front, the discussion highlighted the interplay between national identities, Orthodox and Catholic Christianity, and Islam, with particular reference to Serbia, Kosovo and Albania.
The discussion also provided an opportunity for a contrasting account of the situation in Serbia. One participant, who had recently returned from Belgrade and had extensive professional experience in the Balkans, described a calmer atmosphere in the city than that portrayed by some media outlets, offering a different assessment of the electoral outlook and the strength of the student movement. Sabatti welcomed the contribution, emphasising the value of first-hand experience and the importance of comparing different sources and perspectives.
In closing, Sabatti encouraged the audience to continue exploring developments in the region through specialist news sources, highlighting Osservatorio Balcani-Caucaso Transeuropa and East Journal, two Italian organisations dedicated to reporting on and analysing developments in South-Eastern Europe.
The event launched the new series of lectures organised by the Manlio Cecovini Study Society at the Antico Caffè San Marco on the third Tuesday of each month, from October to June. The series aims to provide opportunities for the public to explore and discuss issues relating to history, society and current affairs. The next event will take place on Tuesday 17 November, when Tiziana Piras will deliver a lecture on the relationship between humanity and nature in literature.
WATCH THE GALLERY
‘The spotlight of the media has shifted somewhat away from the Balkans,’ Sabatti observed at the beginning of his talk, noting that international attention is now largely focused on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Yet, he stressed, the tensions that have historically characterised the Balkan Peninsula have not disappeared. From the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 to the assassination in Sarajevo, which helped trigger the First World War, the region has repeatedly been at the centre of crises capable of drawing in the entire continent. Although the situation has changed profoundly, historical rivalries, questions of identity, economic difficulties and international interests remain closely intertwined.
The first and most extensive part of the lecture focused on Serbia, which Sabatti described as currently the most unstable country on the peninsula. His analysis centred on the student protests that began following the collapse of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad, which claimed sixteen lives, and gradually developed into a wider movement challenging corruption, patronage and the exercise of political power. Ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 25 October, Sabatti examined the contest between Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party and the student-backed electoral list, drawing on analyses by the Osservatorio Balcani-Caucaso Transeuropa and political analyst Mirko Dautović.
According to Sabatti’s interpretation, the vote could usher in a period of change, but might also result in political deadlock. Particular attention was paid to safeguards for electoral integrity, difficulties in scrutinising electoral registers and the need for sufficient independent and international observers. Sabatti also highlighted the influence of Serbian nationalism and unresolved historical issues, which continue to shape political debate and relations with neighbouring countries.
Serbia also illustrates the complexity of the international balance of power in the Balkans. Caught between its European aspirations and its ties with Moscow, Belgrade has developed relationships over the years with a wide range of international partners, from the United States and China to France, Germany and Turkey. Sabatti referred, among other examples, to military agreements with Paris, Chinese investment in mineral extraction and controversies surrounding lithium mining projects. In his view, this foreign policy has enabled Vučić to consolidate his international position, although it now faces an increasingly uncertain domestic political landscape.
The lecture continued with an overview of the political and economic situations in the other countries of the region, highlighting their differing circumstances but also a number of recurring challenges: corruption, difficulties in establishing stable institutions, nationalist tensions and often complicated relationships with the process of European integration.
Montenegro, one of the countries furthest along the path towards EU membership, was presented as an economy supported by tourism and investment, but characterised by a delicate political balance and the coexistence of pro-European and pro-Serbian forces within the governing majority. In Bulgaria, Sabatti focused on political instability in recent years, anti-corruption protests and the challenges facing the country’s institutions, particularly against the backdrop of tensions in the Black Sea. Greece, by contrast, was presented as an example of economic recovery following the debt crisis, despite continuing significant social, employment and housing problems.
Attention was also given to Romania, which, according to the picture outlined by the speaker, is experiencing difficulties in forming a government and a rise in nationalist forces, and to North Macedonia, where progress towards European integration continues to be hindered by the identity-related and constitutional dispute with Bulgaria.
The situation in Kosovo remains particularly complex, marked by difficult relations with Serbia, tensions in Serb-majority municipalities and a process of closer integration with the European Union that is also hampered by five Member States’ refusal to recognise its independence. Sabatti noted that dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, supported by the European institutions, continues to make only limited progress.
In Albania, the discussion focused on student mobilisation and protests against Edi Rama’s government, driven by conditions within the university system, the cost of education and allegations of corruption. The speaker highlighted the contrast between these domestic tensions and the progress the country has made towards EU membership.
The regional overview concluded with Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the complex institutional structure established after the war continues to be affected by divisions between the Bosniak, Serb and Croat communities. Mutual vetoes, separatist pressures within Republika Srpska (the Serb Republic of Bosnia), economic difficulties and the emigration of younger generations all represent, according to Sabatti, obstacles to the country’s stability and development.
What role, then, can Europe play? In the concluding part of his lecture, Sabatti acknowledged the European Union’s efforts to support peace, reform and regional integration, while also highlighting their limitations. In his view, internal divisions, the influence of sovereigntist political forces and the requirement for unanimity in certain decisions continue to undermine Europe’s ability to act swiftly. This weakness is particularly significant in a region where the United States, Russia and China pursue different economic and strategic interests.
Returning to the question posed in the title of the lecture — whether the Balkan powder keg could erupt once again — Sabatti pointed to the risks arising from unresolved crises, beginning with Serbia. Such an outcome is not inevitable, but remains a possibility that makes it essential to continue following developments in the region closely, without assuming that the conflicts of the past have been definitively overcome.
The lecture was followed by a lively discussion with the audience, whose questions and first-hand accounts added further perspectives. Topics included political differences between urban and rural areas in Serbia, relations between Belgrade and Zagreb, protests in Albania, relations between Italy and Serbia, and the role of religious affiliations in Balkan political life.
Turning specifically to Croatia, Sabatti recalled how historical rivalries with Serbia continue to weigh on relations between the two countries, observing that references to the past can also be used to divert attention from domestic difficulties. On the religious front, the discussion highlighted the interplay between national identities, Orthodox and Catholic Christianity, and Islam, with particular reference to Serbia, Kosovo and Albania.
The discussion also provided an opportunity for a contrasting account of the situation in Serbia. One participant, who had recently returned from Belgrade and had extensive professional experience in the Balkans, described a calmer atmosphere in the city than that portrayed by some media outlets, offering a different assessment of the electoral outlook and the strength of the student movement. Sabatti welcomed the contribution, emphasising the value of first-hand experience and the importance of comparing different sources and perspectives.
In closing, Sabatti encouraged the audience to continue exploring developments in the region through specialist news sources, highlighting Osservatorio Balcani-Caucaso Transeuropa and East Journal, two Italian organisations dedicated to reporting on and analysing developments in South-Eastern Europe.
The event launched the new series of lectures organised by the Manlio Cecovini Study Society at the Antico Caffè San Marco on the third Tuesday of each month, from October to June. The series aims to provide opportunities for the public to explore and discuss issues relating to history, society and current affairs. The next event will take place on Tuesday 17 November, when Tiziana Piras will deliver a lecture on the relationship between humanity and nature in literature.
WATCH THE GALLERY
